Many countries worldwide, including the US and Britain may be left empty-handed in the quest for swine flu vaccine.

The contracts signed by these countries with pharmaceutical companies might not hold water and might be broken with ease, when the vaccine becomes available. The experts in the field warn that when there is an outbreak of an epidemic worldwide, like the one being experienced now, governments of countries where vaccines are produced might not allow its shipment abroad, without taking care of its own citizens.

This might sound a death knell for the US and Britain. The US manufactures only 20% of its vaccines and Britain depends entirely on overseas vaccines. Michael Osterholm, director, Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, adds that it is natural for each country to take care of its citizens before adhering to an agreement.

Even if the countries wanted to stick to the drawn-up agreement, it would be extremely improbable for the governments to do so with the mounting political pressure. This might lead to unpleasant situations as only very few countries are self-sufficient in swine flu vaccines. Europe accounts for almost 70% of vaccine production.

This is a body blow to the US, as there is no quick fix solution to this problem. Since the factories need time to build and start production, this might lead to an ugly state of affairs.

The new question being asked is when the vaccine will be available. A WHO report this week says that a fully licensed vaccine will be available only by the year-end. Even when the vaccines arrive, the question remains on its safety and side effects.

With above 400 deaths and almost 95,000 cases already reported, it will definitely be a mad rush, once the vaccine is made available.

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